By Jimmy Hyams
Some have argued that Tennessee has more quality SEC players on its roster this year than last.
Some have argued that’s one reason the Vols will be as good or better than last season’s 8-4 regular-season record.
Tennessee might match last year’s win total. It might even get to nine wins.
But reaching eight wins will be a tough task because I don’t see the talent being as good.
I don’t care how many four- or five-star plays dot the roster. I care if those players play like four- or five-star players. And too many of them have not.
Here are three reasons I don’t think UT’s roster is as good as last year and the main reason I don’t predict Tennessee exceeding its win total of a year ago.
- The position groups. Looking at eight units, I’d take Tennessee in five areas in 2016 over 2017 with one being a virtual push.
I think Tennessee was more talented last year at quarterback, running back, receivers/tight end, defensive line and special teams. I think this year’s team is better along the offensive line and in the secondary. I think linebacker is a push.
At quarterback, I don’t think anyone would argue that you’d rather have Josh Dobbs over Quinten Dormady or Jarrett Guarantano.
At running back, you’d prefer Jalen Hurd, Alvin Kamara and John Kelly over Kelly and either Ty Chandler or Carlin Fils-Aime at running back.
At receiver, I’d rather have Josh Malone and Jauan Jennings than Jennings and Tyler Byrd or Marquez Callaway.
Along the defensive line, it’s tough to replace the 20-plus sacks of Derek Barnett, Corey Vereen and LaTroy Lewis. I can’t imagine Jonathan Kongbo, Darrell Taylor and Kyle Phillips chalking up 20 combined sacks. They might not get 10. Tackle play could be better this season, but you will miss Danny O’Brien, who was suspended midway last season.
I give the secondary the edge this year because I think it will have more depth and get a boost from the addition of cornerback Shaq Wiggins, the improvement of corner Justin Martin in the spring and the talent of safety Nigel Warrior.
I would take last year’s special teams because it had Cam Sutton and Alvin Kamara as punt returners. Otherwise, the same subjects are involved: Eric Berry is a terrific kick returner, Trevor Daniel is a top-notch punter and Aaron Medley is an average kicker.
I’m a fan of middle linebacker Darrin Kirkland Jr. but too many others are unproven at this position. And Kirkland must stay healthy, which he didn’t a year ago.
2. The NFL draft.
Tennessee had six players taken in the first four rounds of the most recent draft. In the upcoming draft, UT might have one or two players taken in the first four rounds: Kirkland or Kongbo, and that’s if they turn pro early. Kelly and Jennings, both juniors, have an outside shot. Perhaps defensive tackle Shy Tuttle if healthy.
The point: UT doesn’t have as many difference makers on the 2017 roster.
A close friend and former UT football coach told me Tennessee has about 45 players that you can win with in the SEC.
My number is about half that.
Quite a few point to the star ratings of UT’s players as an indication of a high talent level. Let’s examine that.
In recent years, recruiting services have adjusted ratings. A five-star suggests a player that will be selected in the first round of the NFL draft and be a potential All-American. A four-star will be taken in rounds two to five and be a likely all-conference player. A three-star could be a late-round pick who should start for at least one season.
Using that as a guide, I don’t see one player who has taken a snap on the current roster that projects to be a first-round pick.
While UT has over 20 four-star players, few have played like a middle-round draft pick.
In other words, not many of UT’s four- or five-star players have played to their star rating.
That could change this season as some of the talent is young – but it is still unproven.
3. The preseason All-SEC team.
Tennessee wasn’t close to having a player on the media’s first team. The Vols had two on the second team and two on the third team.
Last year, Tennessee had nine players on media All-SEC teams: three on first, three on second, three on third.
Doesn’t that suggest to you a dropoff in talent?
My take: If Tennessee wins nine regular-season games this season, it will have overachieved based on its talent level. And eight wins would be a solid season.
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