By Jimmy Hyams
Many people predicted Tennessee would be 3-2 after five games this season.
But no one thought the Vols would struggle to score against a bad UMass team, suffer the worst home loss since 1905, or look like a team headed for a 6-6 season.
After back-to-back nine-win seasons, how did the program, in year five under Butch Jones, get to this point?
Here are five reasons.
- NFL early draft entries.
Tennessee’s program isn’t good enough to withstand losing three players early to the NFL draft.
Alabama has been able to do it. So has Georgia, Florida and LSU (until this season).
But not Tennessee. Butch Jones has built a roster much superior to what he inherited, but the Vols lost all-time sacks leader Derek Barnett in the first round of the draft, receiver Josh Malone (11 touchdown receptions) and running back Alvin Kamara early to the NFL.
Tennessee’s leader in sacks at defensive end has one. The Vols don’t have a receiver with more than 20 catches or three touchdowns. John Kelly is a terrific running back, but he has little help. The No. 2 rusher has 74 yards.
- Lack of difference makers.
I’ve always believed that to be an elite team or to compete at a high level in the SEC, you’ve got to have players that can change a game. Tennessee has one: John Kelly.
That’s it. They don’t have a quarterback like Josh Dobbs that can make a difference. Or a receiver. Or a defensive end. Or a linebacker. Or a lock-down corner.
Jauan Jennings might have been that difference maker at receiver but he suffered a season ending wrist injury in the season opener.
Darrin Kirkland Jr. might have been that linebacker, but he suffered a season ending knee injury in August.
Tennessee has a number of good players, but only one difference maker. And you can’t win in the SEC without them.
- Lack of first-down production.
In the last two games, Tennessee has been terrible on first downs.
Against Georgia, Tennessee had 11 first-down plays that gained 2 or fewer yards. That resulted in eight third-and-5 or longer snaps. UT converted 1 of 12 third downs against Georgia.
Against a UMass team that is 0-6 and surrendered 58 points to Ohio, Tennessee had 20 first-down plays that gained 2 or fewer yards with eight negative yards on run plays in a lackluster 17-13 win.
The Vols managed to convert 2 of 8 third-downs in the second half against the Minutemen.
You can point to several factors: A weak offensive line, suspect play calling, poor quarterback play. But the fact is, UT hasn’t done well on first down lately.
That’s one reason Tennessee has scored only 14 first-quarter points this season.
- Tennessee is running an offense that doesn’t suit its quarterback.
Quinten Dormady is not a zone-read quarterback. He is not a good runner or a willing runner on zone-read plays.
And I’m a firm believer that in the zone-read scheme, your quarterback has to be an effective runner. Auburn and Oregon, in certain years past, are two good examples of struggling offenses due to ineffective running quarterbacks.
UT’s answer with Dormady: Have him throw on run-pass option plays. But Dormady has completed just 55.5 percent of his passes and has thrown more interceptions (6) than any other quarterback in the SEC.
Redshirt freshman Jarrett Guarantano, although highly touted two years ago, doesn’t appear ready to play.
It’s unlikely UT will completely overhaul its offense. Therefore, don’t be surprised if the Vols’ attack struggles to score more than 20 points in several of its remaining seven games.
Injuries aren’t always an excuse. They can be a legitimate reason.
And key injuries can affect not only college teams, but NFL teams as well.
The Vols had an inordinate number of injuries last year to key players (Cam Sutton, Jalen Reeves-Maybin, Shy Tuttle, etc.) that many felt kept it from winning the East Division.
This year, UT’s offense couldn’t afford to lose two players: Kelly and Jennings. It lost Jennings in the opener.
On defense, UT couldn’t afford to lose Kirkland. It lost Kirkland in August.
With UT landing top 15 recruiting classes on a consistent basis, you might ask: Where’s the depth?
Fair question. One problem: The Vols have lost a high number of players to transfer, dismissal, quitting.
Another concern: Many of the 4- or 5-star players have not lived up to their ratings. Part of that might be poor evaluation or lack of player development.
It was interesting to see that, based on Rivals ratings, UT had more starting talent on defense than Georgia, yet the Bulldogs’ defense is far better than UT’s.
Star ratings aren’t the be-all, end-all of judging talent.
But they are guide. And while sometimes misguided, the recruiting services aren’t wrong about all of the prospects.
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